Demand Forecasting Using Time Series and ANN with Inventory Control to Reduce Bullwhip Effect on Home Appliances Electronics Distributors

Abstract

The supply chain principle is very useful and suitable for use in large distributor companies. Distributor companies require strong inventory management calculations because they receive goods of many types and quantities. In this study, the subject used as a case study is PT. Pixel Perdana Jaya, a distributor company that encounters the bullwhip effect. This study aims to identify the effect of bullwhip on PT. Pixel Perdana Jaya and the solution to solve the bullwhip effect in distributors company. Electronic products are very difficult to predict the need for units with precision; this happens because consumer demand for home appliance items is uncertain. Distortion of information can lead to increasingly volatile demand patterns in the upstream supply chain, especially for distributors. To minimize the bullwhip effect on distributors, the proposed strategies for this research are to apply time series and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for forecasting and Distribution Requirement Planning (DRP).