Efficacy of methods for ovulation estimation and their effect on the statistical detection of ovulation-linked behavioral fluctuations

Abstract

Contention of the ovulatory shift hypothesis is principally supported by failures to replicate previous findings; e.g., recent meta-analytic work suggests that the effects endorsing the hypothesis may not be robust. Some possible limitations in this and other ovulatory-effects research—that may contribute to such controversy arising—are: (a) use of error-prone methods for assessing target periods of fertility that are thought to be associated with behavioral shifts, and (b) use of between-subjects—as opposed to within-subjects—methods. In the current study we present both simulated and empirical research: (a) comparing the ability of between- and within-subject t-tests to detect cyclical shifts; (b) evaluating the efficacy of correlating estimated fertility overlays with potential behavioral shifts; and (c) testing the accuracy of counting methods for identifying windows of cycle fertility. While this study cannot assess whether the ovulatory shift hypothesis or other ovulatory-based hypotheses are tenable, it demonstrates how low power resulting from typical methods employed in the extant literature may be associated with perceived inconsistencies in findings. We conclude that to fully address this issue greater use of within-subjects methodology is needed.