Forecasted Dementia Prevalence in Portugal (2020-2080)

Abstract

Dementia is a global public health challenge, and its impact on Portugal is yet unclear. This study forecasts dementia prevalence in Portugal until 2080. Using the Gonçalves-Pereira et al (2021) method, we estimated dementia cases among older adults (≥65 years) in the community. Applying age-sex specific prevalence rates of the Gonçalves-Pereira study to population projections for Portugal between 2020-2080, based on the 10/66 Dementia Research Group criteria (10/66 DRG) and the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders IV criteria (DSM-IV), to Portugal’s population projections (2020-2080) under various growth scenarios (low, medium, and high). We anticipate a more than 2-fold increase in dementia prevalence from 2020 to 2080, both for 10/66 DRG [2.1%-5.0%] and DSM-IV [.8%–2.0%]. By 2080, those aged ≥80 years are projected to constitute 75.0% (vs 59.0% in 2020) of all dementia cases, particularly affecting women. Addressing dementia growth in Portugal calls for a comprehensive global response, while country-level estimates facilitate informed public health planning, policy-making, and resource allocation.