Toward a US national air quality forecast capability: Current and planned capabilities

Abstract

In partnership with the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has deployed the initial stages of a national air quality forecast capability into the National Weather Service operational suite. Current capabilities provide next-day, hour-by-hour, 12-km resolution predictions of (1) ground-level ozone (O3) for the Eastern U.S. and (2) smoke for the lower 48 states. These are generated twice daily by NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Prediction with linked weather and air quality models: the NOAA-EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality model driven by NOAA’s operational North American mesoscale weather prediction model. Forecast accuracy is verified with O3 observations compiled by EPA and with satellite-derived smoke observations. Future operational capabilities for nationwide O3 forecasts are targetted within three years, to be followed by quantitative particulate matter forecasts, and extended forecast periods. Expansion will proceed as rapidly as resources and achievement of required test accuracy permit.