Early relapse within 18 months is a powerful dynamic predictor for prognosis and could revise static risk distribution in multiple myeloma

Abstract

Background: The duration of response to treatment is a major prognostic factor, and early relapse (ER) strongly predicts inferior survival in multiple myeloma (MM). However, the definitions of ER in MM vary from study to study and how to dynamically integrate risk distribution is still unsolved. Methods: This study evaluated these ER definitions and further investigated the underlying relationship with static risk distribution in 629 newly diagnosed MM (NDMM) patients from the National Longitudinal Cohort of Hematological Diseases in China (NCT04645199). Results: These data indicated that early relapse within 18 months (ER18) after initial treatment was the best time point for identifying early progression and dynamic high-risk in MM. The ER18 population (114 of 587, 19.4%) presented with more aggressive biologic features and the inferior response to treatment compared to a reference cohort (p