Tracking the epidemiological trends of female breast cancer in Saudi Arabia since 1990 and forecasting future statistics using global burden of disease data, time-series analysis

Abstract

Background: Female breast cancer stands as the prime type of cancer in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), with a high incidence and mortality rates. This study assessed the burden of female breast cancer in KSA by analyzing and forecasting its incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Methods: We retrieved data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) about female breast cancer from 1990 to 2021. Time-series analysis used the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to forecast female breast cancer statistics from 2022 to 2026. Results: From 1990 to 2021, KSA reported 77,513 cases of female breast cancer. The age groups with the highest number of cases are 45–49 years, followed by 40–44 years, 50–54 years, and 35–39 years. The analysis also showed fewer cases in the younger age groups, with the lowest number in the less than 20-year-old age group. From 1990 to 2021, KSA reported 19,440 deaths due to breast cancer, increasing from 201 cases in 1990 to 1,190 cases in 2021. The age-standardized incidence rate/100,000 of breast cancer increased from 15.4 (95% confidence interval (CI) 11.2–21.0) in 1990 to 46.0 (95%CI 34.5–61.5) in 2021. The forecasted incidence rate of female breast cancer will be 46.5 (95%CI 45.8–46.5) in 2022 and 49.6 (95%CI 46.8–52.3) in 2026. The age-standardized death rate per 100,000 Saudi women with breast cancer increased from 6.73 (95%CI 6.73–9.03) in 1990 to 9.77 (95%CI 7.63–13.00) in 2021. The forecasted female breast cancer death rate will slightly decrease to 9.67 (95%CI 9.49–9.84) in 2022 and to 9.26 (95%CI 8.37–10.15) in 2026. DALYs increased from 229.2 (95%CI 165.7–313.6) in 1990 to 346.1 (95%CI 253.9–467.2) in 2021. The forecasted DALYs of female breast cancer will slightly decrease to 343.3 (95%CI 337.2–349.5) in 2022 reaching 332.1 (95%CI 301.2–363.1) in 2026. Conclusions: Female breast cancer is still a significant public health burden that challenges the health system in KSA, current policies and interventions should be fashioned to alleviate the disease morbidity and mortality and mitigate its future burden.