Improved representation of ocean heat content in energy balance models

Abstract

Anomaly-diffusing energy balance models (AD-EBMs) are routinely employed to analyze and emulate the warming response of both observed and simulated Earth systems. We demonstrate a deficiency in common multi-layer as well as continuous-diffusion AD-EBM variants: They are unable to, simultaneously, properly represent surface warming and the vertical distribution of heat uptake. We show that this inability is due to the diffusion approximation. On the other hand, it is well understood that transport of water from the surface mixed layer into the ocean interior is achieved, in large part, by the process of ventilation—a process associated with outcropping isopycnals. We, therefore, start from a configuration of outcropping isopycnals and demonstrate how an AD-EBM can be modified to include the effect of ventilation on ocean uptake of anomalous radiative forcing. The resulting EBM is able to successfully represent both surface warming and the vertical distribution of heat uptake, and indeed, a simple four-layer model suffices. The simplicity of the models notwithstanding, the analysis presented and the necessity of the modification highlight the role played by processes related to the down-welling branch of global ocean circulation in shaping the vertical distribution of ocean heat uptake.