Modeling and simulation for security risk propagation in critical information systems

Abstract

Existing risk propagation models are limited and inadequate for the analysis of cyber attacks caused by various threats to information systems, because of their limited focus only on one specific threat, such as a single virus or worm. Therefore, we herein propose a risk propagation model based on the Markov process, which can be applied to diverse threats to information systems. Furthermore, simulations including in case a threat occurs related with other threats are performed using five scenarios to verify the proposed model. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2007.