Impact assessment and adaptation simulation for chalky rice grain in the cultivar ‘koshihikari’ in japan using large ensemble climate projection data sets

Abstract

In this study, we used a statistical model to simulate the impact of climate change and adaptations on the occurrence of chalky rice grains (CRG), recognized as an indicator of rice quality. The target variety was ‘Koshihikari’, the most widely grown cultivar in Japan. A large number of ensemble climate projection data sets were used to provide probability information for impact assessment and adaptation simulations. The impact assessment predicted that the occurrence of CRGs would increase with increasing temperature in all regions of Japan. One adaptation simulation indicated that moving the transplanting date would be effective for reducing the occurrence of CRG. A further adaptation simulation using a virtual heat-tolerant variety indicated that this would also be effective in reducing CRG throughout Japan. The results of this study will be useful to stakeholders such as farmers and policymakers when considering the impact of climate change on rice quality.