Using statistical analysis to mitigate risk in environmental programs

Abstract

Greenhouse gas emissions and local pollutants due to fossil fueled power generation are increasingly being recognized as major threats to the environment. A number of programs have been implemented to reduce emissions in developing countries, but less emphasis has been placed on rigorous evaluation of these programs to understand whether or not they are meeting their objectives and if the estimates of program impacts are reliable. The Efficient Lighting Initiative (ELI) is a seven-country program implemented by the International Finance Corporation in Argentina, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia, Peru, the Philippines and South Africa. The objective of the overall ELI program is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by promoting the use of modern and high-quality lighting products to transform domestic lighting markets. This study uses statistical modeling to evaluate the impact of the ELI program on: (1) sales of efficient lamps; (2) energy use; and (3) carbon dioxide, sulphur dioxide and nitrous oxide emissions.