Robust Optimal Trajectory Planning Under Uncertain Winds and Convective Risk

Abstract

The existence of significant uncertainties in the models and systems required for trajectory prediction represents a major challenge for the Trajectory-Based Operations concept. Weather can be considered as one of the most relevant sources of uncertainty. Understanding and managing the impact of these uncertainties are necessary in order to increase the predictability of the ATM system. We present preliminary results on robust trajectory planning in which weather is assumed to be the unique source of uncertainty. State-of-the-art probabilistic forecasts from Ensemble Prediction Systems are employed to characterize uncertainty in the wind and potential convective areas. A robust optimal control methodology to produce efficient and predictable trajectories in the presence of these uncertainties is presented. A set of Pareto-optimal trajectories is obtained for different preferences between predictability, convective risk, and average efficiency.