Note on the potential to increase the accuracy of source term calculations for spent nuclear fuel

Abstract

The accuracy of source term predictions is an important factor which determines the efficiency of interim and final storage of spent nuclear fuel. To minimize the required number of storage containers and to minimize the volume and mass of facilities while maintaining safety margins requires accurate codes to predict the decay heat and the gamma and neutron sources with minimum bias for time points ranging from months to thousands of years. While the relevant nuclear data for the purpose of criticality safety received high attention in the last decades and have been extensively verified with dedicated tests, nuclear data relevant for spent nuclear fuel had smaller priority. Mostly results from a radiochemical analysis of samples taken from commercially irradiated fuel have been used for validation purposes. The comparatively sparse data available from tests which exclusively focus on nuclide vector validation under research conditions means that many factors enter the uncertainty estimate of the measurement-theory comparisons and limits the ability to validate codes to a high accuracy. Firstly, the current status of validation efforts is reviewed. Secondly, fields of improvement are explored. Thirdly, the character of uncertainty distributions in measurement-theory comparisons (C/E) of nuclide vectors is analyzed. Currently there are indications that the C/E data is thick tailed which limits improvement of code validation efforts.