Assessing the hydrological effects of land-use changes on a catchment using the Markov chain and WetSpa models

Abstract

Predicting the effects of land-use (LU) changes and hydrological processes on a rapidly urbanized catchment using the Markov chain and WetSpa models is the main objective of this research. Hourly hydrometeorological data for 2001–2016, land use maps, a digital elevation model (DEM) and soil texture were used as inputs into the models. The simulation results verified some negative impacts of LU changes, such as increases in peak discharge and flow velocity from 2001 to 2032 by 57.1% and 39.4%, respectively. Additionally, the time of concentration decreased from 6 h in 2001 to 5 h in 2016 and to 4 h in 2032. Surface runoff recorded the highest increases by 48.4% and 83.9%, respectively, in 2016 and 2032, compared to 2001. We concluded that the combination of both models is an appropriate tool for predicting the possible effects of LU changes on different hydrological features, which provide vital information for land managers.