A four‐factor immune risk score signature predicts the clinical outcome of patients with spinal chordoma

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Currently, the measurement of immune cells in previous studies is usually subjective, and no immune-based prognostic model has been established for chordoma. In this study, we sought to simultaneously measure tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte (TIL) subtypes in chordoma samples using an objective method and develop an immune risk score (IRS) model for survival prediction. METHODS: Multiplexed quantitative immunofluorescence staining was used to determine the TIL levels in the tumoral and stromal subareas of 114 spinal chordoma specimens (54 in the training and 60 in the validation cohort) for programmed death-1 (PD-1), CD3, CD8, CD20 (where CD is cluster of differentiation), and FOXP3. Flow cytometry was performed to validate the immunofluorescence assay for lymphocyte measurement on an additional five fresh chordoma specimens. Subsequently, the IRS model was built using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression method. RESULTS: Flow cytometry and quantitative immunofluorescence showed similar lymphocytic percentages and TIL subpopulation proportions in the fresh tumor specimens. With the training data, the LASSO model identified four immune features for IRS construction: (tumoral) FOXP3, (tumoral) PD-1, (stromal) FOXP3, and (stromal) CD8. In both cohorts, a high IRS was significantly associated with tumoral programmed cell death-1 ligand 1 expression, Enneking inappropriate tumor resection, and surrounding muscle invasion by tumor. Multivariate Cox regression and stratified analysis in the two cohorts revealed that the IRS was an independent predictor and could effectively separate patients with similar Enneking staging into different risk subgroups, with significantly different survival rates. Further receiver operating characteristic analysis found that the IRS classifier had a better prognostic value than the traditional clinicopathological factors and compensated for the deficiency of Enneking staging for outcome prediction. More importantly, a nomogram based on the IRS and clinical predictors showed adequate performance in estimating disease recurrence and survival of patients. CONCLUSIONS: These data support the use of the IRS signature as a reliable prognostic tool in spinal chordoma and may facilitate individualized therapy decision making for patients.