Statistical Downscaling and Projection of Future Temperature and Precipitation Change in Gandaki Basin

Abstract

Understanding the present and future spatial and temporal variations of precipitation and temperature is important for monitoring climate-induced disasters. Satellite and global reanalysis data can provide evenly distributed climate data; however, they are still too coarse to resolve fundamental processes over complex terrains. The study applies global climate model CGCM4/CANESM2, to project future maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation across the cross-section of the Gandaki River basin, Nepal. Large scale atmospheric variables of the National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research reanalysis (NCEP/NCAR) datasets are downscaled using Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) under different emission scenarios. For the variability and changes in maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), and precipitation for future periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s), three different scenarios RCP2.6, RC4.5, and RCP8.5 of CGCM4 model were performed. The study revealed that both the temperature and precipitation would increase for three RCPs (representative concentration pathways) in the future. The highest increase in precipitation was found in the arid region compared to humid and sub-humid regions by the end of 2100. Similarly, the increase in mean monthly Tmin and Tmax was more pronounced in Jomsom station than Baglung and Dumkauli stations. Overall, a decrease in summer temperature and increase in winter temperature was expected for future periods across all regions. Further, spatial consistency was observed for Tmax and Tmin, whereas spatial consistency was not found for precipitation.