Why are China and the U.S. not destined to fall into the “Thucydides’ trap”?

Abstract

With the rise of China and relative decline of the United States, the question of whether both countries will fall into the so-called “Thucydides’ Trap” an analogy to the Peloponnesian War in ancient Greece has triggered heated debate within international academia. By discussing the misunderstanding about the concept and conducting a three-level analysis of modern Sino-U.S. relations, this article identifies a few major flaws in making a simple analogy between the Athens-Sparta confrontation in ancient Greece and the Sino-U.S. relationship today. It concludes that a war between China and the United States is unlikely to take place thanks to the confines of the international system, the different nature of alliance networks from the ancient Greek period, the economic interdependence among countries, and the changing public attitude toward war. It also suggests both countries expand their economic, political, security and cultural cooperation, so as to ultimately overcome the “Thucydides’ Trap”.