A combination forecasting model for fast cost estimating in civil engineering

Abstract

This paper tries to make a model based on fuzzy mathematics, Grey model and regression model, exploring methods to estimate the project cost quickly. Firstly, the similar projects are found by the similarity measures in the fuzzy mathematics. Secondly, Grey interconnects degree helps to find the main factors affecting the project cost. Finally, these main factors establish the regression equation. This model is applied to analyze data from the construction projects cost in Guangzhou, indicating the effectiveness and practicality of the model. By comparison with the single models, the civil engineering cost is estimated quickly and accurately, while the combined model improves the limitations of a single model, accuracy and reduce the prediction errors. © 2014 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.