Tropical Atlantic seasonal predictability: The roles of El Niño remote influence and thermodynamic air-sea feedback

Abstract

Recent studies suggest that the thermodynamic feedback and the remote influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are two dominant factors affecting climate variability in the tropical Atlantic sector. Given that both of these processes are included in an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to a mixed layer ocean (ML), such a simple coupled system is expected to possess useful skills in predicting regional climate variability on seasonal time scales. This letter reports some preliminary results from a set of prediction experiments using a coupled AGCM-ML model. These results show promise for prospects of seasonal climate prediction in the tropical Atlantic sector using the simple dynamical seasonal prediction system.