Human impacts to antarctic wildlife: Predictions and speculations for 2060

Abstract

Four broad categories of human activities that presently threaten Antarctic wildlife in the Antarctic were identified: (1) tourism and non-governmental activities, (2) scientific research, (3) commercial fisheries and (4) whaling. Two further broad categories of threats that originate from multiple forms of human activities are: (1) shipping-related impacts and (2) the introduction of non-native species or disease-causing agents. These threats are not mutually exclusive, and there are various interactions and synergies present amongst them. We have not incorporated climate change into the assessment of each of these, but briefly assess the hierarchical contribution of climate change to other threats. We confidently expect an expansion of virtually all anthropogenic activities in the Antarctic (primarily tourism, research and fisheries) in the next 50 years. The threats will also increase in their complex synergies and interactions, giving further increasing urgency to adopting a more precautionary approach to managing human activities in the Antarctic. We present predictions for 2060 and list suggested proactive management and conservation strategies to address the predicted threats to Antarctic wildlife and their environment.