Mathematical models for the analysis of destabilization processes of the socio-political situation in the country using the methods of non-violent resistance

Abstract

The task of counteractions unfavorable combinations of events, deliberately organized with the aim of destabilizing the socio-political situation in the country using actions of non-violent resistance of the citizens. Herewith, the destabilization plan is representing in the form of a logical tree, and adverse combinations of events—in the form of its minimum cross sections. The probabilities of realization of the minimum cross sections is determined by solving the systems of Kolmogorov-Chapman differential equations. Counteracting efforts to destabilize the socio-political environment is to monitor these probabilities and take the necessary measures to reduce them.