Home advantage and away goals rule: An analysis from Brazil Cup

Abstract

In football, many people argue that in knock-out competitions the team that plays the second game in its stadium 6 would have an advantage, a greater probability of victory in the final outcome of a two leg knock-out match. The purpose of 7 this study is to verify the veracity of this statement using data from the Brazil Cup. We find evidence that the ability spread 8 between the teams participating in a match is the main factor that explains the qualification of one of the teams for the next 9 round. There are three criteria for break the tie in the Brazil Cup, they are used in the respectively order: goal difference, 10 away goals rule, penalty shootout (there is no extra-time in any play-off of the championship). It is estimated that 36% of the 11 matches end tied and need a criterion to determine the winner. Of these, 51% use the goal difference decision, 29% use the 12 away goals rule and 20% penalty shoot-out. When considering the championship in general there is evidence that the home 13 team wins the match in approximately 63% of the matches, a significant advantage. However, in the confrontations that were 14 decided by the away goals rule or the penalty shoot-out, the home team wins percentage is 20% lower, indicating that these 15 criteria level the odds of both teams