The Utility of Agri-Compatible Virtual Resource Flows for Food Security Policy and Strategy Under Climate Change

Abstract

The effects of climate change on agriculture and productive resources would be geographically different. As a result, food trade would provide a vital bridge between countries with surplus and those with deficits. The virtual resource flow concept, such as virtual water or land use, quantifies the indirect transfer of productive resources via food commodity trade. Virtual water or land use refers to the volume of water or area of land used, respectively, to produce a given quantity of food commodity which is traded. The hypothesis of the virtual resource flow concept seems potentially capable of providing a theoretical context for a trade strategy or policy that can serve coupled resource-food security goals to support adaptation and resilience to climate change. However, opponents have argued that some conceptual limitations diminish the utility of the virtual resource flow concept for trade policy or strategy. The main limitation relates to difficulties in quantifying and isolating the usefulness and effects of virtual resource flows on the resource security of the destination country. The conceptual limitation for policy or trade strategy can be redressed by evaluating virtual resource flows in an agri-compatibility framework. The objective of this chapter is to promote the agri-compatibility framework to advance the utility of the virtual resource flow concept for strategic trade decisions or adaptive policy in response to climate change. The chapter reviews the virtual resource concept and its limitation for policy and then sets out the usefulness and the conditions for evaluating virtual resource flows in the agri-compatibility framework as a basis for coupled resource-food security policy or strategy under climate change. It is concluded that the virtual resource flow concept is useful for policy if it meets the conditions of agri-compatibility. Future work on estimates of agri-compatible virtual resource flows in different contexts is recommended to facilitate wider practical applications.