A Health Policy Simulation and Gaming Model of Ebola Haemorrhagic Fever and Zika Fever

Abstract

This paper proposes a gaming and simulation model of Ebola haemorrhagic fever and Zika fever. The mathematical modelling of infectious diseases such as SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) model and SEIR (S, Exposed, I, R) has been widely used to understand the epidemic of influenza, smallpox, to name a few. Recently, an agent-based model has been adopted to represent the behaviour of each person on the computer. The study designs a model in which health policies are considered such as vaccine stocks, antiviral medicine stocks, the number of medical staff to support overseas and so forth. The infectious disease model of Ebola fever and Zika fever is also implemented in the model. Besides, based on these simulation models, we developed a medical policy decision game that dealt with infections as serious games and verified the effect. As results of experiments using the model, we found that preventive vaccine, antiviral medicine stocks and the number of medical staff are crucial factors to prevent the spread. Also, a modern city is vulnerable to Zika fever due to commuting by train. And it has also been found that self-control and restraint on immigration are essential, in addition to the vaccine reserve amount and the timing of decision-making for medical support to the partner country where the occurrence of infection has spread.