Which influencing factors cause co2 emissions differences in china’s provincial construction industry: Empirical analysis from a quantile regression model

Abstract

China is currently the largest emitter in the world. Moreover, the construction industry is the biggest contributor to CO2 emissions. Most scholars use the averaging method to explore CO2 emissions driving factors. However, the actual socio-economic variables distribution isn’t often normal, with the tail having hidden important information. Based on panel data from 2004-2016, this paper investigates the driving forces of CO2 emissions through the quantile regression approach. The empirical results show that the impacts of economic growth on CO2 emissions in the 10th-25th, 50th-75th and 75th-90th quantile provinces are higher than those in the other quantile provinces. The influences of urbanization on CO2 emissions in the upper 90th are strongest in all the quantile provinces. The affects of construction development on CO2 emission in the 25th-50th and upper 90th quantile provinces is greater than those in the other quantile provinces, while the effects of energy intensity on CO2 in the lower 10th and 10th-25th quantile provinces are lower than those in other quantile provinces due to the difference. Consequently, emission reduction departments should take into account the differences of carbon emissions driving forces in different provinces and reasonably formulate policies in mitigating carbon emission.