Application of machine learning model to predict lacunar cerebral infarction in elderly patients with femoral neck fracture before surgery

Abstract

Background: Femoral neck fracture and lacunar cerebral infarction (LCI) are the most common diseases in the elderly. When LCI patients undergo a series of traumas such as surgery, their postoperative recovery results are often poor. Moreover, few studies have explored the relationship between LCI and femoral neck fracture in the elderly. Therefore, this study will develop a ML (machine learning)-based model to predict LCI before surgery in elderly patients with a femoral neck fracture. Methods: Professional medical staff retrospectively collected the data of 161 patients with unilateral femoral neck fracture who underwent surgery in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University database from January 1, 2015, to January 1, 2020. Patients were divided into two groups based on LCI (diagnosis based on cranial CT image): the LCI group and the non-LCI group. Preoperative clinical characteristics and preoperative laboratory data were collected for all patients. Features were selected by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, with age, white blood cell (WBC), prealbumin, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), total protein, globulin, serum creatinine (Scr), blood urea nitrogen (Bun)/Scr, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), serum sodium and fibrinogen as the features of the ML model. Five machine learning algorithms, Logistic regression (LR), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), and Decision tree (DT), were used in combination with preoperative clinical characteristics and laboratory data to establish a predictive model of LCI in patients with a femoral neck fracture. Furthermore, indices like the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC), sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were calculated to test the models’ performance. Results: The AUROC of 5 ML models ranged from 0.76 to 0.95. It turned out that the RF model demonstrated the highest performance in predicting LCI for femoral neck fracture patients before surgery, whose AUROC was 0.95, sensitivity 1.00, specificity 0.81, and accuracy 0.90 in validation sets. Furthermore, the top 4 high-ranking variables in the RF model were prealbumin, fibrinogen, globulin and Scr, in descending order of importance. Conclusion: In this study, 5 ML models were developed and validated for patients with femoral neck fracture to predict preoperative LCI. RF model provides an excellent predictive value with an AUROC of 0.95. Clinicians can better conduct multidisciplinary perioperative management for patients with femoral neck fractures through this model and accelerate the postoperative recovery of patients.