Planning in the presence of uncertainty: principles and practice

Abstract

In Britain as in Japan, decision-making in the field of public planning poses challenges which are as much political as technical. This paper begins by analysing the difficulties that arise in situations where planners, engineers, administrators, politicians and others must work together to make interrelated decisions in the face of uncertainty. It then describes how these difficulties are addressed in a collaborative approach known as SCA - standing for Strategic Choice Approach. In this approach, people with different perspectives to offer meet to work intensively together in informal group 'workshops', which are organised in a structured yet flexible way under the guidance of an experienced facilitator. In this process, flip charts are arranged around the walls of the room, and a range of graphical methods are used to help the group to agree on a shared view of the nature of the decisions which they face; the linkages among these; the range of possible strategies for moving forward; and their differing impacts on the various interests which will be affected. One of the main distinctive features of this approach is that it enables people to manage uncertainty in a strategic way, and to make steady progress towards agreement on the actions to be taken, both in the shorter and the longer term. Recently, computer software has been developed in order to make the same principles of incremental planning more accessible to individuals and to small groups of colleagues meeting in their own work-places in their own time. The paper ends with some discussion of the relationship of this approach to other planning methods, and the prospects for further development and wider application in the urban and transportation planning field.