Vulnerability to seasonal food insecurity as an exposure to risk: the case of the Southern Province of Zambia

Abstract

Background: Seasonality is an important aspect of food security for subsistence households in developing countries. Among the multidimensional aspects of food security, this paper focuses on how unexpected negative harvest shocks would affect the seasonal food consumption of households. This is particularly important because, with the increasing threat of climate change, the frequency of extreme weather events such as droughts and floods is expected to increase; this would adversely affect crop yields. Methods: Given seasonal price changes of staple foods, some households buy them when prices are low and store them for the hunger season (not buy high (NBH) households), while others run out of staple foods before the next harvest and therefore buy them when prices are high (buy high (BH) households). Using three years of weekly household panel data for the Choma and Sinazongwe Districts of the southern province of Zambia, we assess the ability of seasonal consumption smoothing separately for NBH and BH households. Results: NBH households successfully smooth their consumption over the 12 months of the crop year. In contrast, BH households, especially for households with few assets, reduce total consumption in response to harvest shocks, just after the harvest and during the “hunger season” just before the next harvest. However, in spite of this, the consumption of staple foods is generally insensitive to harvest shocks. Instead, they reduce consumption only of non-staple food items, such as vegetables and meats. Conclusions: Seasonal food insecurity is exacerbated by negative harvest shocks. We emphasize the significance of policies aimed at increasing public awareness of healthier food choices, empowering households to avoid purchasing maize at high prices, and reducing seasonal price disparities.