Implications of the Ukraine war for China: can China survive secondary sanctions?

Abstract

In this short article, I provide a preliminary assessment of the economic consequences of possible secondary sanctions on China. Considering the interdependence of China with the rest of the world, I analyse challenges and opportunities China would face in the scenario of secondary sanctions. My analysis covers China’s real economy, domestic financial system, role in international finance, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Overall, China can survive secondary sanctions, but its ambitions for the advancement of technology would face mounting difficulties.