World population growth, distribution and demographics and their implications on food production 1

Abstract

The world's human population of 6 billion is currently projected by the United Nations to reach about 8 billion by the year 2025 and continue growing until stabilising at about 10.8 billion in 2150. Most of this increase is destined to occur in underdeveloped countries. It is not only the magnitude of this population growth, but also its speed that will cause unprecedented strain on world food production. It will also affect living standards in most countries and likely widen the disparities that exist between the industrialised and underdeveloped nations. While world food production currently exceeds requirements, economic and political constraints on its distribution leave about 800 million people malnourished. Food production, processing and distribution in the industrialised countries rely heavily on energy provided by petroleum products. As global oil production is expected to begin declining within 5 yr, alternative energy strategies will be required. Human activities are also being linked to changes in global weather, and to the destruction of the soil and water resources necessary for sustainable food production. The scale and rapidity of these changes in turn will affect the productivity and stability of agriculture systems in the world's major food producing areas. As societies react to these pressures on food production, choices between economic and humanistic goals will become more prominent political issues.