Trust, distrust, and the end of politics-as-we-knew-it: the mood of the nation prior to election 2017

Abstract

New Zealand’s party-political system has, in the past, undergone significant transformations. And recent political events around the world have been marked by anti-establishment distrust, electoral disruption and the rise of populist parties. So the present article asks if this country could be on the verge of similar disruption, and whether there is a mood among the public that could precipitate a phase of populism. An online survey run in May 2017 by Stuff.co.nz and Massey University (supported by comparable opinion polls) is used to investigate this. In spite of significant levels of dissatisfaction and desire for changes, the survey did not reveal a mood for disruptive or systemic political change in the short term. Nonetheless, political fragmentation of the kind seen in proportional systems in Europe could occur in New Zealand in the long term.