Individuals' return predictability in market and limit trades

Abstract

This paper studies individuals' return predictability and its economic sources for each trade type using a long-period database containing detailed information of every transaction on the Korea Stock Exchange. Both market and limit trades of individual investors have short-horizon return predictability. Return predictability in limit trades is related to compensation for liquidity provision, but that in market trades seems to be given for private information and be amplified by the serially correlated trading of individual investor groups. The return predictability of individuals' total trades is economically insignificant, implying that individuals' return predictability is not a special anomaly refuting market efficiency. © 2014 Korean Securities Association.