The Superior Role of Agricultural Growth in Reducing Child Stunting: An Instrumental Variables Approach

Abstract

This chapter examines the impacts of agricultural growth and nonagricultural growth on the prevalence of child stunting in developing countries between 1984 and 2014. We find that a 10% increase in agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) per capita would reduce stunting by 2.9%, whereas a similar relative increase in non-agricultural GDP per capita would reduce stunting by only 2.2%.We confirm that agricultural growth is superior to non-agricultural growth in reducing child stunting. However, given the moderate amplitude of the estimated effects, it is unlikely that a pro-poor growth strategy, even one focussed on agriculture, would generate sufficient stunting reductions in line with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Policymakers may consider prioritising their efforts towards complementary direct nutritional investments. We also estimate the reverse causal impacts of stunting on sectoral growth. Stunting costs on average approximately 13.6% of potential non-agricultural GDP per capita and 3.4% of potential agricultural GDP per capita.