The Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on the Vietnamese Economy: A Comprehensive Assessment based on Data Analysis and Surveys

Abstract

For mankind, war always brings heavy devastation to people and property. In general, pandemic diseases are a factor causing mass death and much greater socio-economic devastation than war. Updating current news and analysis and synthesis initially shows that globalization has made the Covid-19 pandemic spread rapidly worldwide, unprecedented in history. At the same time, the Covid-19 pandemic had a strong impact on people’s lives. This study aims to project the impact scenarios of the Covid-19 pandemic on the Vietnamese economy and provide some policy recommendations to limit negative economic impacts. The results of the study indicate that: (i) Q2 GDP growth of Vietnam is forecast to be around 2.0% over the same period and will even decline if a bad scenario occurs; (ii) If the pandemic is prolonged, the impact on the economy in general and the business sector, in particular, will be very serious. We recommend the government build a variety of economic policy scenarios ranging from short (support) to long term (rescue) to cope with the pandemic situation in Vietnam and other countries worldwide. The proposed policy solutions need to consider the delay in the issuance and implementation process to ensure timeliness and efficiency.