Impacts of climate change on blue and green water resources in the middle and upper yarlung zangbo river, China

Abstract

The Yarlung Zangbo River is the largest river on the Tibetan Plateau and a major international river in South Asia. Changes in the blue and green water resources in its basin are of great importance to the surrounding local and Asian regions in the context of global warming. This research used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model to estimate blue and green flows (BWF and GWF) and analyze the spatial‐temporal distribution characteristics under different hypothetical climate change scenarios. The results show that (1) the multi‐year average BWF in the middle and upper reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin is 176.2 mm, the GWF is 213.1 mm, and the difference between precipitation and total water resources is only 5.4 mm; (2) both BWF and GWF in this basin showed a slightly increasing trend from 1980 to 2010, but the distribution of subbasins from upstream to downstream is decreasing; and (3) GWF has a positive correlation with both precipitation and temperature, but BWF only increases with precipitation and decreases with increasing temperature. Moreover, the change in blue and green water resources is more sensitive to the changes in precipitation than to changes in the temperature.