Forecast scrap generation and emission reduction of china’s steel industry

Abstract

The efficient recycling of metal resources will greatly reduce impact on environment. Analyzing the structures of steel manufacturing processes and evaluating the consumption of iron and steel scrap will provide support for China to increase the efficiency of steel resources recycling. Based on the dynamic material flow analysis (DMFA) method, the Weibull distribution was used in this paper to calculate the theoretical amount of old scrap in China from 1949 to 2025 according to historical consumption data. Compared with traditional processes, the EAF (Electric Arc Furnace) production has better energy-saving potential. The results showed that during 1949–2017, domestic cumulative consumption of iron resources was 7.72 billion tons, the average consumption of construction industry accounted for 58.4% of total social consumption, and the accumulated old scrap was 946 million tons. The accumulated quantity of old scrap accounted for only 12.4% of the total consumption. A great number of scrap will be generated in the future. By 2025, the total supply of steel scrap will be about 200 million tons, of which more than 80% will come from old scrap. In the scenario of the ratio of EAF production reach of 25%, 120 million tons of iron ore, 130 million tons of CO $$:2$$ emissions and 57 million tons of solid wastes will be reduced.