Prediction of central carbon segregation in continuous casting billet using a regularized extreme learning machine model

Abstract

Central carbon segregation is a typical internal defect of continuous cast steel billets. Real-time and accurate carbon segregation prediction is of great significance for lean control of the production quality in continuous casting processes. In this paper, a data-driven regularized extreme learning machine (R-ELM) model is proposed for the prediction of carbon segregation index (CSI). To improve model performance, outliers in industrial data were eliminated by means of boxplot tool. Besides, Pearson correlation combined with grey relational analysis (GRA) was conducted to avoid multicollinearity and redundancy in input variables. The new model shows potential to evaluate online quality of steel billets. When predictive errors were within ±0.03 and ±0.025, the prediction accuracy of the R-ELM model was 94% and 89%, respectively, which was higher than that of the multiple linear regression (MLR) model and ELM model. Moreover, the effects of several key continuous casting process parameters on CSI were investigated based on the predictions of the R-ELM model via response surface analysis. The conclusions are consistent with the metallurgical mechanism, and the predictive values of the R-ELM model agree well with experimental values, which further verifies the correctness and generalization ability of the R-ELM model.