THE EFFECT OF OIL PRICE ON STOCK MARKET RETURNS WITH MODERATING EFFECT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT & FOREIGN PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT: EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN STOCK MARKET

Abstract

This paper investigates the moderating impact of FDI & FPI in the association of macro-economic variables along with Oil prices & Index returns. Monthly data has been used from the period 2005 to 2018. Efficient unit root & breakpoint unit root tests results indicate that all variables are stationary at 1st difference. Co-integration test results signify the presence of long-run relationship in model. GARCH (1,1) model has been applied for analyzing the volatility in the data series. Furthermore, least square method is employed to check dependency & fitness level of model. In order to investigate the moderating impact, regression technique has been applied. Findings of LSM technique indicate that index returns aren’t significantly dependent on macroeconomic variables on 1st difference of data series because variables predicting behavior has been changed with respect to stationarity of data. Exchange rate & interest rate have negative significant association with index returns. Oil prices & foreign direct investment have positive relationship with stock market return. FDI & FPI are unable to moderate significantly model dynamics. For estimating the panel regression model, 11 different sectors data is used and results show that exchange rate & oil prices have positive significant impact on sector wise price change but interest rate has significant negative association.