Learning the Lessons of Oslo: State-building and Freedoms in Palestine

Abstract

The current situation of the Palestinian people can be described as one of indefinite transition. The prospects for Palestinian development must be considered in this context, as development in the conventional sense has presently been rendered virtually impossible. The Palestinian polity presently faces the uncertainty of an endless permanent transition, and Israel has infinite opportunities for intervention at its disposal given the uncertain transitional status of the Palestinian territories. Furthermore, it is extremely unlikely that this transition will be short since, given its internal perceptions of its strategic interests and concerns, the Israeli state’s dominant strategy appears to be to manage this transition for as long as it can. The prospects of achieving Palestinian rights therefore depend upon how Palestinians cope during this transition period. If the transition period results in an ongoing fragmentation of the Palestinian polity, its disintegration into regional and factional groups and, of course, its collapse into internal strife — the prospects of achieving Palestinian rights, let alone future statehood, will be seriously diminished. To some extent this has already happened with the effective separation of Gaza from the West Bank since June 2007. And despite the promise of reconciliation, the chances of future divisions remain.