Strategies to prevent damage to critical infrastructure due to induced seismicity

Abstract

There has been a significant increase in the rate of felt earthquakes in western Alberta and eastern British Columbia, which has been associated with hydraulic fracturing and wastewater disposal. The increased rate of seismicity and the potential for localized strong ground motions from very shallow events poses an increased hazard to critical infrastructure such as major dams—particularly for older high-consequence structures. This paper overviews the factors that affect the likelihood of damaging ground motions and examines their implications for hazard assessment and mitigation. A strategy aimed at reducing the likelihood of potentially damaging ground motions to achieve probabilistic targets for critical facilities is developed, comprising elements of both mitigation and avoidance. For critical facilities, an effective strategy includes (i) an exclusion zone having a radius of ∼5 km; and (ii) a monitoring-and-response protocol to track the rate of events at the M > 2 level within 25 km, with adjustment of operational practices if required. An exclusion zone provides a deterministic safety margin to ensure the integrity of those few facilities for which failure consequences are unacceptable. Real-time monitoring tied to a response protocol can be used to control the rate of significant events and thereby limit the hazard more broadly.