Is neural network a reliable forecaster on earth? A MARS query!

Abstract

Long-term rainfall prediction is a challenging task especially in the modern world where we are facing the major environmental problem of global warming. In general, climate and rainfall are highly non-linear phenomena in nature exhibiting what is known as the "butterfly effect". While some regions of the world are noticing a systematic decrease in annual rainfall, others notice increases in flooding and severe storms. The global nature of this phenomenon is very complicated and requires sophisticated computer modeling and simulation to predict accurately. In this paper, we report a performance analysis for Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) [1] and artificial neural networks for one month ahead prediction of rainfall. To evaluate the prediction efficiency, we made use of 87 years of rainfall data in Kerala state, the southern part of the Indian peninsula situated at latitude-longitude pairs (8°29• N - 76°57• E). We used an artificial neural network trained using the scaled conjugate gradient algorithm. The neural network and MARS were trained with 40 years of rainfall data. For performance evaluation, network predicted outputs were compared with the actual rainfall data. Simulation results reveal that MARS is a good forecasting tool and performed better than the considered neural network. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2001.