Analysis of Risk Factors and the Establishment of a Predictive Model for Thrombosis in Patients with Antineutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibody-Associated Vasculitis

Abstract

Purpose: To explore the risk factors for thrombi occurring in patients with antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)–associated vasculitis (AAV) and establish a risk prediction model to better predict the risk of thrombosis in patients with AAV. Patients and Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 117 AAV patients who had been hospitalized in The Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University between October 2010 and December 2021. For all patients, we recorded demographic character-istics and clinical data, analyzed the risk factors for thrombosis in AAV patients and then developed a risk prediction model. Results: Stepwise logistic regression analysis indicated that a high complement C3 level, a high BVAS score and a high Padua score were independent risk factors for thrombosis in AAV patients. According to multivariate analysis, a predictive model for thrombus risk was successfully established; the area under the ROC curve(AUC) was 0.803 (95% CI: 0.716–0.890) and the maximum Youden index, sensitivity and specificity were 0.487, 59.0% and 89.7%, respectively. Conclusion: A high complement C3 level, high BVAS score, and a high Padua score were shown to be independent risk factors for thrombosis in AAV patients. We developed a risk prediction model based on these three risk factors that could predict the risk of thrombosis in AAV patients to some extent.