Application of Cosinor Analysis for Modeling Time Series of Traffic Accidents

Abstract

In connection with a variety of road conditions and traffic characteristics in each particular locality, a more general approach to evaluation of influence of external factors on road safety is required. Therefore, development of a mathematical model based on a time series of road traffic accidents is of great importance for determining the influencing factors. Using the example of the road traffic in Yakutsk, mathematical modeling of the time series of road crashes was performed using a technique of sequential application of cosinor analysis. Their rhythmic structure has been revealed and the factors influencing the road safety have been identified.