On the epidemiology of offender populations

Abstract

This article presents a model of offender population growth, similar to those used for modelling epidemics of infectious disease. The model is built on the premise that juveniles whose families are affected by economic stress become "susceptible" to "infection" (involvement in crime) and that susceptible juveniles become delinquent on contact with other delinquents. This premise is based on evidence which is presented in the article, that parenting factors and delinquent peer influence mediate the effects of economic stress on involvement in crime. Simulations of the model are used to demonstrate that this approach can explain some of the anomalies associated with traditional approaches to explaining the link between economic stress and crime.