FATORES DETERMINANTES E CENÁRIOS FUTUROS SOBRE A EXPANSÃO DA CANA-DE-AÇÚCAR NA REGIÃO DE CERRADO NO CENTRO-OESTE MINEIRO

Abstract

In this study we sought to identify the influence of physiographic variables on sugarcane expansion in the Midwest of Minas Gerais, between the years 2005 and 2010, as well as the simulation of future scenarios to cover and land use in the year 2030. The results indicated that, among the variables , location of plants , distances of cultivated areas , road network and topography exerted a favorable influence on the increase in planted area in the region . Maps of future scenarios indicate significant differences between the two simulated scenarios. At first, the pasture area would remain stable, the remaining Cerrado vegetation would suffer an increase of 5.3% (regeneration), the sugarcane would fall by 24.7 % in its cultivated area, while agriculture in general would increase its coverage by 40%. The second scenario is characterized by a significant increase in crops of sugar cane, increasing its area 127.3 %. The conversion to sugarcane would occur especially on areas with agriculture and pastures, which would suffer from 35 % and 27.1 % reductions respectively. (English) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]