Analysis of an evacuation plan after an earthquake in El Progreso sector at Carabayllo district

Abstract

Lima is a city of 10 million inhabitants, and 60% of its population lives in slums settlements. Due to its location in the Circum Pacific Belt of Fire, this is a high-seismic activity area. Despite this fact, there is a serious lack of urban planning and natural disaster planning. After decades of neglect by Latin American governments in terms of planning, a quantitative risk assessment to determine population exposure is imperative, as well as it is also mandatory to propose an evacuation plan to mitigate, as far as possible, the post-earthquake effects. “El Progreso” sector located in Carabayllo, a Lima district in Peru, was selected as the case study because it is one of the slum settlements with the highest potential risk as it is located in a basin surrounded by hills due to the effects of informal constructions (such as ceilings). Filled with rocks and walls) their slopes have suffered much more deterioration than in other hillsides. In addition, this area is prone to debris avalanches, rock fragments, debris flows among other geologic hazards. First step is start to identify all the existing risks such as: the height of buildings near the escape routes, illegally parked vehicles (mainly taxis and Peruvian motorcycle taxis), current traffic on the streets, distance to the evacuation areas, flow capacity of escape routes, flows of pedestrian moving in opposite directions, slopes and types of floor of escape routes, danger of avalanche and falling rocks. Then, risks will be classified using the Analytic Hierarchy Process AHP to obtain the cost function for roads. Then, two evacuation models based on linear programming are presented minimizing risk functions. Finally, two evacuation models based on linear programming are presented.