Change, continuity or cycles: The population turnaround in New South Wales

Abstract

This study examines population flows from Sydney and other regions to perimetropolitan and coastal areas of New South Wales, the two main foci of the population turnaround since 1971. It uses census internal migration statistics for the five intercensal periods between 1971 and 1996, and estimated resident population statistics between 1997 and 2000. Fluctuating trends are described with respect to variations in age structures of migration flows and net migration gains by SLAs in coastal areas over time. Evidence of fluctuating trends is evaluated in relation to population structure change and local socio-economic multipliers in turnaround areas. The turnaround is far mor than a net migration gain from large metropolitan areas; it is also associated with interregional migration which avoids metropolitan areas, and which is at least in part environment- and amenity-related. The experience of some other countries, such as the USA where net migration reversals in population turn-around regions have occurred, has not been replicated in Australia. While elements of explanation for the complex cumulative causation process of the population turnaround in Australia are discussed, including the issues of fluctuating or cyclical trends, much more understanding of the economic and social factors involved is required.