Estimating the prevalence of cancer in the United States

Abstract

BACKGROUND. Few reports have estimated the prevalence of persons in the U.S. ever diagnosed with invasive cancer. METHODS. The Connecticut Tumor Registry was used to identify all Connecticut residents ever diagnosed (1935- 1944) with invasive cancer who were known to be alive in 1994. Estimated prevalence rates for Connecticut were compared with those for 1982, and were applied to the total U.S. population for selected years. RESULTS. Some 95,361 persons ever diagnosed with invasive cancer(s) were confirmed as being alive at the end of 1994. The age-standardized prevalence rate had increased by 40% in males and 13% in females since 1982, due in part to large increases for breast, prostate, and (in females) lung carcinoma. Using the data for Connecticut, an estimated 7.1 million Americans in 1995 had ever been diagnosed with invasive cancer: projected numbers were 7.7 million for 2000 and 13.2 million for 2030. CONCLUSIONS. The prevalence of persons ever diagnosed with invasive cancer could increase considerably in the coming decades, and numbers for elderly males could surpass those for elderly females by 2020. Although projections must be interpreted with caution, these data emphasize the need for primary prevention of cancer and for studies of cancer survivors.