Country-specific market impacts of climate change

Abstract

We develop a new climate-impact model, the Global Impact Model (GIM), which combines future scenarios, detailed spatial simulations by general circulation models (GCMs), sectoral features, climate-response functions, and adaptation to generate country-specific impacts by market sector. Estimates are made for three future scenarios, two GCMs, and two climate-response functions - a reduced-form model and a cross-sectional model. Combining empirically based response functions, sectoral data by country, and careful climate forecasts gives analysts a more powerful tool for estimating market impacts. GIM predicts that country specific results vary, implying that research in this area is likely to be policy-relevant.