Heterogeneity of treatment effects by risk in pulmonary arterial hypertension

Abstract

Background It is currently unknown if disease severity modifies response to therapy in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). We aimed to explore if disease severity, as defined by established risk-prediction algorithms, modified response to therapy in randomised clinical trials in PAH. Methods We performed a meta-analysis using individual participant data from 18 randomised clinical trials of therapy for PAH submitted to the United States Food and Drug Administration to determine if predicted risk of 1-year mortality at randomisation modified the treatment effect on three outcomes: change in 6-min walk distance (6MWD), clinical worsening at 12 weeks and time to clinical worsening. Results Of 6561 patients with a baseline US Registry to Evaluate Early and Long-Term PAH Disease Management (REVEAL 2.0) score, we found that individuals with higher baseline risk had higher probabilities of clinical worsening but no difference in change in 6MWD. We detected a significant interaction of REVEAL 2.0 risk and treatment assignment on change in 6MWD. For every 3-point increase in REVEAL 2.0 score, there was a 12.49 m (95% CI 5.86–19.12 m; p=0.001) greater treatment effect in change in 6MWD. We did not detect a significant risk by treatment interaction on clinical worsening with most of the risk-prediction algorithms. Conclusions We found that predicted risk of 1-year mortality in PAH modified treatment effect as measured by 6MWD, but not clinical worsening. Our findings highlight the importance of identifying sources of treatment heterogeneity by predicted risk to tailor studies to patients most likely to have the greatest treatment response.