Commercial Vehicles in Delhi: Diesel Demand and Sulphur Emission

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to estimate the future growth of commercial vehicles (pas-senger vehicles and goods vehicles) and to project the subsequent increase in diesel demand and the level of sulphur dioxide emissions in Delhi. Using an S-curve growth model on the data set of auto rickshaws, taxis, buses, and goods vehicles from 1965-66 to 2005-06, a long-term trend in the growth of commercial vehicles is projected to the year 2020-21. By 2020-21, the number of commercial vehicles is expected to increase to 0.51 million, with an increase in the share of goods vehicles and a simultaneous decrease in the share of passenger vehicles. The growth of commercial vehicles will boost the demand for diesel in 2020-21 by 68 percent, thus resulting in a threefold increase in sulphur dioxide emissions. The conversion of goods vehicle engines from diesel to CNG (compressed natural gas) will reduce diesel demand and sulphur dioxide levels significantly. A reduction of sulphur content in diesel can further reduce sulphur dioxide emissions.